The Labour Party is, we gather, more than 20 points ahead in the polls. Most commentators believe that a Starmer-led Labour Government will be running the country with a substantial majority after the 2024 Election.
IGS: Durham does not have a political opinion (obviously, we do: my point is that we do not express it publicly) so I am not saying Labour’s policy of putting VAT on school fees is good or bad. I would simply say that it’s almost certainly coming, and quite soon.
What will that mean? The legislation, it seems, will remove VAT exemption from school fees, so they will go up by 20% straightaway. The UK average of £15,500 a year would increase by £3,100 to £18,600. £15,000 is a huge enough commitment - £18,000 seems somehow to take that to quite another level.
In our case, the increase would not be quite so daunting - our current fee, for example, would increase to £4,320. That is still a significant hike but at £60 a month is more manageable than £260 a month, which would be the average increase.
The political, economic or moral case for implementing this policy is not something we will be arguing for or against here. We will have to face up to it - in all probability - so might as well get used to it. There are those (recently Toby Young) who have argued persuasively that the policy would be self-defeating and actually cost money rather than raise it. The trouble is that sadly we live in a culture in which rational argument rarely works when confronted by virtue signalling - feelings tend to trump facts, and there are many for whom the feel-good factor of taking cash from the more wealthy in order to fund better public services etc. is the important thing, whether it actually does raise any extra money or not. Persuasive, reasoned argument - although some rather nostalgically think it still works … simply doesn’t any more, no matter which side of politics it comes from. So I suspect we’re stuck with this one.
IGS: Durham may be in a better position than many to cope. I would expect to see - regretfully - many private schools close or merge but our lasting commitment to affordable fees will hopefully help us to continue to thrive.